Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Housing Just Got a Lot More Affordable


Here are the cities with the biggest increase in affordability:

Housing Cost as a percentage % of Homeowners Income (Peak to Current)

Metro Area Oakland, CA
Peak Date 2007-08
Peak Ratio 84%
Current Ratio 28%
% Change 67%

Metro Area Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
Peak Date 2006-07
Peak Ratio 68%
Current Ratio 25%
% Change 64%

Metro Area Sacramento, CA
Peak Date 2005-06
Peak Ratio 63%
Current Ratio 26%
% Change 59%

Metro Area Las Vegas, NV
Peak Date 2006-07
Peak Ratio 54%
Current Ratio 22
% Change 59%

Metro Area Phoenix, AZ
Peak Date 2006-07
Peak Ratio 46%
Current Ratio 19%
% Change 58%

Metro Area Los Angeles, CA
Peak Date 2007-08
Peak Ratio 102%
Current Ratio 45%
% Change 56%

Metro Area Miami, FL
Peak Date 2007-08
Peak Ratio 76%
Current Ratio 34%
% Change 54%

Metro Area Washington DC
Peak Date 2005-06
Peak Ratio 53%
Current Ratio 25%
% Change 53%

Metro Area Detroit, MI
Peak Date 2004-05
Peak Ratio 29%
Current Ratio 15%
% Change 49%

Metro Area Tampa, FL
Peak Date 2006-06
Peak Ratio 42%
Current Ratio 21%
% Change 49%

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Housing construction continues to decline


Housing starts tumbled 10.8% in March, a distress sign that economists say means housing construction will not make a big turnaround soon.

Construction of new homes and apartments fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000 units, the Commerce Department said Thursday। That was the second-lowest rate in the department's records, which go back 50 years.

The decline was more than many economists had expected and took off some of the glow from a reported increase in February। The February figure was also revised downward in Thursday's report.

Applications for building permits fell 9% in March to a 513,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, the lowest on record।

Michael Larson, a housing analyst at Weiss Research, says the numbers are being strongly affected by the starts in the multifamily home segment, whose numbers tend to swing widely।

"Builders are having a hard time competing with these low prices on almost-new and foreclosed homes," Larsen says। "You're seeing things getting a little less bad on the housing arena, but there is still a market that is oversupplied. Nothing suggests an imminent recovery."
Reduced housing starts could help shorten the time necessary to clear the nation's oversupply of available homes।

The number of newly built homes for sale has shrunk from a peak of about 555,000 three years ago to about 300,000 today।

New construction has fallen in part due to the difficulty builders have getting credit, consolidations within the industry, and the fact that home prices are often coming in below construction cost।

Housing starts "are at extraordinarily low levels," says Mark Zandi at Moody's Economy।com. "We are at a bottom in terms of construction. It's very hard on the home-building industry."

He predicts new construction will pick up by this time next year।

The Commerce Department reported last month that home construction had increased more than 20% in February। That was revised in Thursday's report to 17.2%.

"The numbers are bouncing around, which is not that much of a surprise," says Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors. "Single-family starts were essentially flat. That gives me some hope that that segment of the market is starting to stabilize."

Relocation rate lowest since tracking began in 1948

The national mover rate declined from 13।2 percent in 2007 to 11.9 percent in 2008 — its lowest rate since the bureau began tracking these data in 1948.In 2008, 35.2 million people 1 year and older changed residences within the U.S., representing a decrease from 38.7 million in 2007 and the smallest number of residents to move since 1962.“Even though the number of people who changed residence in 2008 dropped by 3.5 million from the previous year, millions of Americans continue to move,” said Tom Mesenbourg, acting director of the U.S. Census Bureau. “As we gear up for the 2010 Census, we will be looking to get an accurate count of everyone in the country, regardless of whether they moved in the past year or not.”By region, people in the South (13.5 percent) and in the West (13.2 percent) were likeliest to move in 2008. (The two rates were not statistically different.) The Midwest and the Northeast had mover rates of 11.1 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively. In 2008, the Midwest saw the largest decline in its mover rate from 2007.Among those who moved in 2008, 65 percent moved within the same county, 18 percent moved to a different county within the same state, 13 percent moved to a different state, and 3 percent moved to the U.S. from abroad.Principal cities within metropolitan areas experienced a net loss of 2 million movers, while the suburbs had a net gain of 2.2 million movers.In 2008, renters were five times more likely to move than homeowners. More than one-in-four people (27.7 percent) living in renter-occupied housing units lived in a different residence one year earlier. By comparison, the mover rate of people living in owner-occupied housing units was 5.4 percent.Other highlights:• Of the population for whom poverty is determined: 22.8 percent below 100 percent of the poverty level moved within the last year, 16.3 percent between 100 and 149 percent of the poverty level moved within the last year, and 9.7 percent at or above 150 percent of the poverty level moved within the last year.• While the number of movers who lived 500 or more miles from their previous residence one year ago (2.8 million) was not statistically different in 2008 than 2007, the number of movers who lived less than 50 miles away one year ago decreased from 5.1 million to 4.4 million between 2007 and 2008.• The most common reasons for moving were housing related – such as the desire to own a home or live in a better neighborhood – representing 40.1 percent or 14.1 million movers. The distribution among those who gave other reasons for moving was: family related (30.5 percent), employment related (20.9 percent) and other (8.5 percent).• The black alone population had the highest mover rate (16 percent), followed by Hispanics (15 percent), Asian alone (13 percent) and white alone, not Hispanic (10 percent).थे statistics come from Geographical Mobility: 2008, a series of tables that describe the comparison between place of residence at the time of the March survey and place of residence one year earlier.


Republicans torpedo mortgage relief plan


The centerpiece of President Barack Obama’s plan to keep thousands of people from losing their homes amid the worst economic crisis in decades is headed for defeat this week in the Senate.

Allowing people to seek mortgage relief in bankruptcy court is opposed by Republicans and enough Democrats to block it। They remain worried that the legislation would unleash a torrent of loan defaults, ultimately driving up mortgage rates and introducing fresh uncertainty to an already ailing economy.

The rejection would deal a blow to the popular president pushing an ambitious agenda to stabilize the economy।

“I just want to underscore our commitment ... to doing everything we can to help mitigate the damage homeowners are facing across the country,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers this week।

The number of homes under threat of foreclosure has shot up since last year, when २.3 million households received foreclosure filings.

RealtyTrac Inc।, a foreclosure listing firm, has reported that some 650,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related note in the first three months of 2008. This year, nearly 804,000 homes have already received foreclosure notes.

Economists also estimate that about a fourth of U।S. mortgage-holders owe more to the bank than their property is worth.

In February, Obama announced his plan to save some 9 million debt-ridden individuals from losing their homes by providing incentives to lenders to cut homeowners’ monthly payments or refinance loans for individuals whose home’s market value has sunk below what they owe।

As part of the plan, Obama said he also wanted to change bankruptcy laws so a judge can reduce a person’s mortgage payment based on its market value। The option was cast as a last resort for homeowners who were unable to otherwise modify their loans.

Bankruptcy judges can already reduce loans on investment properties or personal property based on the property’s current value।

Congressional Democrats championed the legislation, which passed the House in March. But the measure quickly stalled in the Senate amid a multimillion-dollar lobbying effort by banks and credit unions that said the forced easing, or “cram-down,” of mortgage terms would impose steep and unpredictable costs.
Sen। Dick Durbin, D-Ill., has led negotiations with the banking industry under the assumption that a deal would shore up Democratic support and win over a few moderate Republicans to reach the 60 votes needed to pass the bill.

This week, the National Association of Federal Credit Unions released a letter from its board of directors rejecting the proposal. While other groups, including banking giants JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, remained at the table, Democratic aides said the prospects of an agreement looked dim.
Believing the Senate needed to move on, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev।, tentatively scheduled a Thursday vote.

“There’s no reason why every Republican shouldn’t be on record for opposing a provision that could help tens of thousands of Americans,” said Reid spokesman Jim Manley।

The bankruptcy provision will be offered as an amendment to popular legislation aimed at freeing up capital for banks by increasing the borrowing authority of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp।

Last year, Republicans and 10 Democrats, along with Connecticut independent Joe Lieberman, voted to scuttle similar legislation in a 58-36 vote।

Among those expected to reject the bill next week were Democratic Sens। Jon Tester of Montana and Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Tester and Nelson were among those who voted last year to block the proposal.

Tester said in a statement on Friday that while he supports helping homeowners to modify their mortgages, he believes the bankruptcy bill would be ineffective and potentially harmful।

Likewise, a Nelson spokesman said the senator believes the provision “would raise interest rates on other borrowers and further destabilize the mortgage industry.”


Friday, April 24, 2009

Home Sales: The Distressing Gap

Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through March.


Real Time Economics at the WSJ excerpted some analyst comments about the existing home sales report yesterday: Economists React: ‘Plunge Is Over’ in Existing-Home Sales। A few comments from analysts:

"Home sales have stabilized following the post-Lehmans plunge..."

"This is a bit disappointing but the big picture is still clear; the plunge in sales following the Lehman blowup is over।"

"The weaker-than-expected result does not change the broad trend in sales, however, which continues to point to a tenuous stabilization..."

"Although home resales were down in March, one can make a reasonable argument that resales are bottoming ..."

As I've noted before, I believe this "stabilization" discussion in existing home sales analysis is all wrong।

Close to half of existing home sales are distressed sales: REO sales (foreclosure resales) or short sales. This has created a gap between new and existing sales as shown in the following graph that I've jokingly labeled the "Distressing" gap.
I believe this gap was caused by distressed sales - in many areas home builders cannot compete with REO sales, and this has pushed down new home sales while keeping existing home sales activity elevated।

Over time, as we slowly work through the distressed inventory of existing homes, I expect existing home sales to fall further।

So I believe those analysts looking at the existing home sales report for stability are looking in the wrong place। The first "signs of stability" in the housing market will be declining inventory, a bottom in new home sales, and the gap between new and existing home sales closing।

by CalculatedRisk on 4/24/2009

New-home sales slip in March, but beat expectations


New-home sales dipped slightly last month, but still beat expectations as builders start to see long-awaited signs of life in the housing market — including a dip in the inventory of new homes for sale.The Commerce Department said Friday that sales fell 0.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 356,000 from an upwardly revised February rate of 358,000. February's results were adjusted upward more than 6%.

New-home figures are notoriously volatile and subject to big adjustments.
March's results exceeded the expectations of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a sales pace of 340,000 units। Sales were still down nearly 31% from March 2008.

The median sale price of a new home fell to $201,400, a 12% drop from a year earlier। The median price is the midpoint, where half sell for more and half for less. Prices are likely to remain weak as builders continue to clear out their stock of unsold homes.

There were 311,000 new homes for sale at the end of March, down 5।2% from 328,000 in February. At the current sales pace, the government said it would take almost 11 months to exhaust the supply of new homes on the market.

The glut of unsold homes and competition from deeply discounted foreclosed properties puts even more pressure on prices and on builders' profits।

The report measures signed contracts to buy new homes rather than completed sales, so March's results could reflect the early impact of a new a new $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers signed by President Barack Obama in mid-February
Sales varied dramatically around the country, rising more than 15% in the West from a month earlier, and unchanged in the South। They sank more than 32% in the Northeast and nearly 8% in the West.

In the market for previously occupied homes — a far larger market — the spring selling season is off to a lackluster start. Sales fell 3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million in March month from a downwardly revised pace of 4.71 million units in February, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

26 cities with the highest foreclosure rate


All are located in 4 hard-hit states. Metro areas in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona topped the foreclosure filing list for the first quarter of 2009 in a report from RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. A foreclosure filing includes default papers, auction sale notices and repossessions.

Las Vegas had the highest rate of foreclosures of any city, with one in every 22 homes subject to a foreclosure filing in the first three months of the year। The rate of foreclosure filings was 4.5%, seven times the national average.

Merced, Calif।, had the second highest rate, with Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., Stockton, Calif., and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., rounding out the top five.

"The metro areas with the highest levels of foreclosure activity in the first quarter of 2009 paint a picture of concentrated problems in a relatively small number of hard-hit areas," said James J। Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, in a written statement.

Foreclosure rates have been very high in the 4 key states throughout the bursting of the housing bubble, and so it was to be expected that cities from those states would pepper the top of the list।

It was a surprise to see the list so top heavy, according to Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac।

New problem cities: Meanwhile, some metropolitan areas had a surge in foreclosures। Boise City-Nampa, Idaho, in 27th place, Provo-Orem, Utah, in 37th, and Charleston-North Charleston, S.C., in 51st were examples Sharga gave of areas that had particular strong gains in filings.

Sharga said the rise of foreclosures in additional regions indicates new factors influencing the housing market as the recession drags on।

"What we believe we are seeing is some of the areas with unemployment problems," said Sharga। "These are people living paycheck to paycheck and, when the paycheck is gone, suddenly they can't afford to make their mortgage payments."

The data for RealtyTrak's metro area foreclosure report is collected from 2,200 counties across the nation, and those counties represent more than 90% of the U।S. population. Some 203 areas are covered by the report.

Across the nation, foreclosure activity in the first quarter hit a record high, according to another RealtyTrac report issued last week। Total foreclosure filings reached 803,489 in the first three months of the year, the highest monthly and quarterly totals since RealtyTrac began reporting in January 2005.

The national report also found that the worst of the foreclosures were centralized in a handful of worst-hit states. California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Illinois accounted for nearly 60% of the total foreclosure activity in the first quarter, with 479,516 properties received foreclosure filings in those states.