The housing crash that helped bring on the worst recession since the Great Depression will linger in the nation's hardest-hit real estate markets until 2025 -- or later. Nearly a full generation will pass before major metro areas in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada return to the solid ground reached at the height of the housing boom in 2006-2007. And it'll take a decade or more for other urban markets in the Northeast and industrial Midwest to likewise return to peak conditions.
Even the start of a housing recovery in general is still a year away.
Nationally, data points to a further 7 percent decline in home prices through the end of this year, with a prolonged recovery beginning early in 2011.
The areas with the deepest price declines will face the longest recovery periods. Specifically:
Orlando, Fla., won't recover its average 59.9 percent drop in home prices until 2039.
Sacramento, Calif., will jog in place until 2039 to make up its 54.8 percent home price crash.
San Jose, Calif., won't recover from a 41.7 percent home price plunge until 2023.
Jacksonville, Fla.'s home price bust of 39.3 percent will keep that market below peak until 2020. Tucson, Ariz., also will have to wait until 2020 to rebound from a 36.8 home price plummet.
Several forces in the market will severely hinder the housing recoveries of many metro areas, particularly in the hard-hit states of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. It will take these markets 15 or more years before home prices climb back to their peaks.
Fiserv Case-Shiller
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