TGIF News Snippets

*Click Graph to enlarge

2007-2008 Home Sales price changes in selected areas (Red) and with Bank REO sales added in (Black)
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Bankruptcies

The courts expect bankruptcy filings will increase by 27 percent this year to 1.2 million as more people face foreclosures and other financial problems caused by the poor economy.
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Foreclosure Tactic

Do you know that your have the legal right to make the lender provide proof that they own the note? Do you know that you can even contest the foreclosure even after the lender has taken the property back?
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Mortgage rates are low.
So are approval rates.

Even with more credit-worthy applicants seeking loans, banks are reluctant to give them the money, despite near record low mortgage rates.

Mortgage interest rates are already flirting with record lows and the Federal Reserve's move to buy up government debt will send those rates even lower. But it doesn't look like it will get any easier for borrowers - even those with good credit.
Bankrate.com reported Thursday that the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.29%, compared with 5.37% in the prior week. In January, rates fell as low as 5.28%.

Data does not even reflect the Fed's Wednesday announcement that it will purchase $300 billion in long-term government debt.

"This is a big commitment made by the Fed," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research, "like going all in in poker. The Fed is buying anything and everything to drive down rates."

The 10-year Treasury yield is used to help calculate 10-year mortgage rates, so as the yield falls, the corresponding mortgage interest rate follows.

Larson said he would not be surprised to see mortgage rates drop into the 4.5% range soon. If they do, that would surpass the 4.7% loans available just after World War II, the cheapest mortgages in American history, according to Larson.

However, one expert cautioned that mortgage rates may not fall as quickly as Treasury yields.

"Mortgage interest rates no longer move in lockstep with Treasurys," said Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a publisher of mortgage information. "A half-point drop in Treasury yields will not translate into a half-point drop in rates. But there will be a big downdraft on rates."

Even before the Fed's move, rates were low and many borrowers were trying to take advantage of them. Applications for mortgages jumped 21.2% last week compared with a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), with homeowners seeking to refinance their old, higher interest rate loans accounting for nearly 73% of all applicants.

Most people who apply for loans generally receive them, according to Gumbinger, who said the pull-through rate - the percentage of applicants whose loans are approved - has been running about 60%.

Still, that's significantly lower than the pull-through rate the MBA recorded during the height of the housing boom a time when lenders set the bar for mortgage borrowers very low. In 2005, for example, more than 66% of all applicants were approved. In 2003, nearly 79% got their loans.

It's not like borrowers back then were more qualified. They were not. Credit scores for those who actually receive mortgages have been on the rise during the past few years.

Borrowers with scores of 750 or above accounted for 38% of loans issued during the second quarter of 2008, compared with just 23% two years earlier, according to the MBA. Those with low credit scores of 650 or less represented only 15% of loans during the first three months of 2008, compared with 28% during the first quarter of 2006.

During the bubble years, many borrowers weren't asked to prove income or assets or demonstrate that they could afford to repay their loans. Indeed, in many cases, it was obvious that they could not. So, they were given low teaser rates they could manage for the first couple of years and, after that, the thinking was, they could refinance the loan and start the process over again.

The housing bust ended all that and the people applying for loans now are of much better credit quality. But underwriters are so tough today that they still reject four of every 10 loans.

Sharp underwriting"The underwriters are being so careful," said Steve Habetz, a mortgage broker based in Connecticut. "The minutia they're asking applicants for is amazing."

He had a couple with a 750 credit score looking to refinance a loan, which would leave the clients with a 60% loan-to-value ratio; in other words, an excellent credit risk.

"It took weeks to get approval," said Habetz. "They kept asking for more and more detail about his assets."

Underwriting standards are so stringent, according to Gumbinger, many potential mortgage borrowers don't even bother considering buying a home because of all the hoops they have to jump through. "Borrowers understand they have to be better qualified to get a loan now so they don't even bother to try," he said.

They must repair their credit or come up with bigger down payments if they want to buy a home.
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$1 trillion in new liquidity.

Right now, there is about $800 billion plus currency in circulation sitting in wallets, purses and cash registers around the country. Another $800 billion is sitting in a vault at the Federal Reserve Board, for a total monetary supply of about $1.6 trillion. In a vault? Yes. When Congress voted the TARP program to bail out banks, the banks actually took only a small part of the money. The rest they used to offset losses on their balance sheets while letting the Fed hold onto the money.

Why didn't the banks want the money? Because they're not about to make loans in this economy. They're more than happy to let the cash sit at the Fed earning them interest. (The Fed decided to start paying interest last November).

So now the Fed will, in essence, be creating another trillion of money supply to sit in the vault alongside the $800 billion already there. The new money will remain idle for the same reason the old money has because banks won't make loans in this environment.

And what of the money that is going out the door to buy Treasury bills? Those selling Treasuries won't run out and spend the money on flat-screen TVs. With higher taxes coming up next year and the economy in the tank, they won't spend it or lend it they'll probably just turn around and buy more T-bills.

Think of a parking garage filled with cars. The cars' owners leave them in the garage, because it's a bad day with rain and snow and conditions aren't suitable for driving. Similarly, banks and consumers leave their money in the vault at the Fed or in their bank accounts or under the mattress.

When conditions improve, though, all those metaphorical cars will suddenly be taken out for a drive. All at once.