The period from 2010 to 2030 will see the most remarkable change in America’s built environment since the end of World War II.
The changes will be driven by monumental demographic shifts coupled by important changes in housing preference.
The landscape of the new American metropolis will be very different from the old one ... the end of the spatial expansion of metropolitan areas and a new era of infill and redevelopment. This will lead to a decline in the homeownership rate because of shifting demographics, changing preferences (more urban amenities) and changing lending standards.
On demographics:
The demographic profile of the United States is changing in several important ways, led by aging baby boomers and immigrants. The focus here is on the aging “boomers” and secondarily on broad changes in household types that will drive future housing demand.
The baby boom generation, (children born between 1946 and 1964) will turn sixty-five between 2011 and 2029. For most years since about 1950, roughly half a million people turned sixty-five annually. By the late 1990s, for about a decade the number of people turning sixty-five fell to about a quarter million annually.
The period from 2010 to 2030 will see an average of 1.6 million turning sixty-five annually.
The share of households with children also will change. The baby boom era gave rise to suburbs and along with them modern planning and zoning control. In the 1950s, most households were raising children, by 2030, only about a quarter will be. Single-person households will surpass households with children by 2030, for the first time in the nation’s history.
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